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May. 15th, 2009 14:21Future-Building Questions: Human-inhabited Earth
For these questions, assumptions are:
1) At least a few million humans still living on Earth.
2) The focus is on your own country, the area you know best.
1. Has the Grand Unified Theory of Everything been formulated, and generally accepted by physical scientists?
2. Has the One True Economic Theory been formulated, and generally accepted by
a. economists?
b. other social scientists?
c. elected officials?
3. Is it possible to predict the future accurately enough that anyone properly applying the methods will consistently make money betting on elections and investing in stocks?
4. Is there more than one way to predict with that degree of accuracy?
5. What technology not now expected will be available and usable?
6. What technology now expected will
a. not be developed?
b. be developed, but not used or rarely used? (Historical examples include: Air cars completely taking over from ground-only cars. Videophones making voice-only phones completely obsolete. Air cars have been marketed at least since the 1950's; AT&T's PicturePhone became available in the 1960's.)
7. What technology will be used in unintended and unexpected ways?
For the next three questions, I have problems reading fiction which assumes the answers are "Just the same as today."
8. What will conservatives in your country believe and/or advocate?
9. What will liberals/progressives in your country believe and/or advocate?
10. What will radicals in your country (left, right, or self-labeled centrist/moderate) believe and/or advocate?
11. If a majority of your country's population now lives on farms, how much will this have changed by the time of your future setting? (In the US, only a small minority of the RURAL population now lives on working farms.)
12. What percentage of working animals have human-level intelligence? What percentage of pets?
13. How many people live off Earth?
14. What countries which are major powers in our time will have lost power; possibly enough to take them out of the "major" class? Have any gained power?
15. What countries have become major powers?
16. What countries have
a. broken up?
b. been absorbed by multinational polities more powerful than the national governments which created them?
For these questions, assumptions are:
1) At least a few million humans still living on Earth.
2) The focus is on your own country, the area you know best.
1. Has the Grand Unified Theory of Everything been formulated, and generally accepted by physical scientists?
2. Has the One True Economic Theory been formulated, and generally accepted by
a. economists?
b. other social scientists?
c. elected officials?
3. Is it possible to predict the future accurately enough that anyone properly applying the methods will consistently make money betting on elections and investing in stocks?
4. Is there more than one way to predict with that degree of accuracy?
5. What technology not now expected will be available and usable?
6. What technology now expected will
a. not be developed?
b. be developed, but not used or rarely used? (Historical examples include: Air cars completely taking over from ground-only cars. Videophones making voice-only phones completely obsolete. Air cars have been marketed at least since the 1950's; AT&T's PicturePhone became available in the 1960's.)
7. What technology will be used in unintended and unexpected ways?
For the next three questions, I have problems reading fiction which assumes the answers are "Just the same as today."
8. What will conservatives in your country believe and/or advocate?
9. What will liberals/progressives in your country believe and/or advocate?
10. What will radicals in your country (left, right, or self-labeled centrist/moderate) believe and/or advocate?
11. If a majority of your country's population now lives on farms, how much will this have changed by the time of your future setting? (In the US, only a small minority of the RURAL population now lives on working farms.)
12. What percentage of working animals have human-level intelligence? What percentage of pets?
13. How many people live off Earth?
14. What countries which are major powers in our time will have lost power; possibly enough to take them out of the "major" class? Have any gained power?
15. What countries have become major powers?
16. What countries have
a. broken up?
b. been absorbed by multinational polities more powerful than the national governments which created them?