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Jun. 18th, 2011 23:25Dubious Forecasting Method: Newspaper Analysis
In John Naisbitt's book _Megatrends_ (1982), he touted this prediction method:
Read newspapers; note which topics they give the most space to. Papers have only a limited amount of space, and therefore concentrate on the most important stories. And these are the trends which will determine the future.
Does anyone really think "There's a new pet in the White House" is important to the future of the United States? But it's front page news. How important is most sports news to the future? Newspapers don't choose news for its importance to the future; they choose a mixture of what they think is currently important, and what they think readers will be interested in.
What seems important now isn't always what will shape the future.
Still, it can be useful to know what newspapers are devoting their space to; and which stories get the most space. And it's now much easier than it was in 1982.
Read various English-language editions of Google News (http://news.google.com). They have news from a great many newspapers, newsblogs, and broadcasting stations.
If you can read other languages, see what those editions have to say. The Spanish-language US edition probably has a different mix of stories than the English-language one, for example.
In John Naisbitt's book _Megatrends_ (1982), he touted this prediction method:
Read newspapers; note which topics they give the most space to. Papers have only a limited amount of space, and therefore concentrate on the most important stories. And these are the trends which will determine the future.
Does anyone really think "There's a new pet in the White House" is important to the future of the United States? But it's front page news. How important is most sports news to the future? Newspapers don't choose news for its importance to the future; they choose a mixture of what they think is currently important, and what they think readers will be interested in.
What seems important now isn't always what will shape the future.
Still, it can be useful to know what newspapers are devoting their space to; and which stories get the most space. And it's now much easier than it was in 1982.
Read various English-language editions of Google News (http://news.google.com). They have news from a great many newspapers, newsblogs, and broadcasting stations.
If you can read other languages, see what those editions have to say. The Spanish-language US edition probably has a different mix of stories than the English-language one, for example.